According to the IPCC, increased CO2 concentrations are significant not only because atmospheric CO2 deflects infrared radiation back to earth (the greenhouse effect) but also because the retained heat from such deflection has an “amplifying” effect on climate patterns. For example, according to the IPCC’s 1990 climate model, increased global surface temperatures resulting from the greenhouse effect of higher CO2 atmospheric concentrations “force” other climate changes that trampoline global temperature increases. The impact on atmospheric water vapor is a prime example. As the earth’s surface heats (particularly ocean surfaces), the 1990 IPCC models predicted higher concentrations of atmospheric water vapor due to surface water evaporation. Because water vapor is also a natural greenhouse gas (because it has the effect of deflecting infrared heat back to the earth’s surface), higher concentrations of atmospheric water vapor have a compounding effect on rising surface temperatures. The IPCC’s models predicted several such “positive feedbacks” from increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations, resulting in a predicted increase in global surface temperatures under the “business as usual” scenario of between 1 and 3.5 degrees C (1.8 to 6.3 degrees F) by 2065.

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