Stage three of the model can accurately be called the “fertility transition.” (Cohen pg. 46). It is of course characterised by the rapid decline in the birth rate. The decline can be in part attributed to the education of the people on matters of birth control. Economics too played a part in the decline of the birth rate. As urbanisation increased, so did mechanisation of society, particularly in the factories. As a result, children became less of an asset as wage earners, and more of a liability. Children started to be educated in a formal sense, and the cost of this education was high enough that it too caused the birth rate to fall. Social security programs were starting to take shape, so there was less of a need to have many children around to support ageing parents. Indeed, it is the social securities burden that is a major consequence as countries move into stage four of the transition.

Because developed countries are at stage four or beyond, the demographic transition model is not really appropriate in predicting future population growth in these countries. It is difficult to predict exactly what will happen as a result of the population decline. Some have argued that the decline in population in developed countries will mean that innovation will slow, as low birth rates means less of a chance for another “Einstein” or the like. Equally unfounded is the fear that the rapidly increasing populations in the developing countries will recognise their disparity and “revolt,” “taking over” the less populous countries. The preceding scenarios are perhaps farfetched, but they are an indication of the doubt that exists as to the fate of populations at stage four and beyond. It is fair to estimate that developed countries’ populations will remain at or near population replacement levels.

In conclusion, it is fair to state that the demographic transition model is a useful tool in predicting population growth in the developing countries, as they are still in the midst of the transition. Indeed, according to the statistics, most developing countries are somewhere between mid-stages 2 and 3. However, it is crucial to keep in mind that the developing countries are moving through the model at an accelerated rate compared to the developed countries, and as a result, their populations are growing quickly. In the developed countries, however, the transition model is not really useful in predicting population growth, as most developed

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