The banking industry has come under increasing pessimism of late because of rising short and long-term interest rates. The banking industry's market capitalization made a substantial decline. Most investors are concerned with whether the industry can sustain continued profitability as a result of these factors.
Banks have responded in recent years to these problems by diversifying away from interest sensitive products and services. But interest rates are the fundamental aspect of any financial services. Therefore, I believe the financial services industry will be deeply affected by rising interest rates. Banks have experienced good business factors over the past two years. Interest rates were low, credit quality was good, and inflation was low. These factors are usually predictive of the types of earnings banks should report. But good times can't continue because interest rate hikes cause reduced lending activity, damaged credit quality, and reduced values of bond portfolios.
1. An increase in interest rates causing a decline in bank activity.
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