CAPM
The capital asset pricing model (CAPM) theory assumes that an investor expects a yield on a certain security equivalent to the risk free rate (say that rate achievable on six-month Treasury bill) plus a premium based on market variability of return X, a market risk premium. Over the past decade, the market risk premium on listed U.S. common stocks appears to have been about 6.5%, according to statistics published in the Quarterly Review by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (1991) (though the Ibbotson study found it to exceed 8% from the mid-1920s through 1987). Therefore, in a period of 4% inflation, the T-bill rate might be appropriately 4.5 to 5%; a four or five year Treasury note should have a yield of 5.5 to 6%; Treasury bonds should yield a percent higher than this; and corporate bond yields should have even higher returns to compensate for their additional credit or business risk. The expected rate of return on any asset can be written as the risk-free rate of interest plus the asset's level of volatility relative to the market times the difference between market's expected rate of return and the risk-free rate. This model and the pricing result became
As yields shift upward on short, intermediate, and long-term government issues, bond yields will generally rise, meaning that bond prices decline, whereas stock prices will begin to fall (or price-earnings ratios decline). When yields on fixed-return government issues decline, conversely, stock prices usually move upward, although some at faster rates than others. Since stocks are bought on the basis of expected returns for the next year (or for several years into the future), a perceived shift in the rate of inflation (or of the interest rate level) will send most common stocks to higher or lower levels. Strength of the overall economy, the sector in which the firm operates, its own industry's strengths and weaknesses, and individual firm's characteristics likewise have a bearing on the assessed market value of equity issues. With the constant growth model, a justified market rate of return is determined by applying the capital asset pricing model, as explained and illustrated in Figure 1. The growth rate for the stock is then estimated, and the value of the infinite stream of dividends is computed in the following manner: The dividend growth model variation might assume that the 10% growth would prevail for a few years and then trend downward for a few years to about average in the nation, where this rate of growth would continue forever. A realistic infinite growth rate might be the rate of inflation (e.g., unit price increases to offset consumer price index [CPI] changes), plus 1% for population growth and another one or two percentage points for productivity gains. Growth in book value per share, due to the retention of E/S, might be anothe
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Approximate Word count = 1121
Approximate Pages = 4 (250 words per page double spaced)
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