Danske Slagterier's Head of Economics, Karsten Flemin speaking before an invited audience of UK journalists in Copenhagen on the 26 February presented a bright view for the Danish industry for the next year. .
Flemin forecast a 2 to 3% increase in Danish pig production in 2001 over 2000, from 22.4 million head in 2000 to 23.3 million head in 2001. Flemin set this against the long term growth in production in Denmark, were production has doubled since 1970. Flemin did however suggest that practical limits on land availability and increasing environmental legislation place an upper productive limit, under current circumstances and technology, of approximately 28 million head. .
In the shorter term, Flemin revealed his view on EU production in 2001. In his opinion , of the EU countries only Denmark and Spain would increase production in 2001 over 2000, Austria would hold its own in production terms and every other EU state would record a fall in production in 2001, and the EU's total production would fall 1%. .
For Denmark, Flemin forecast a significant price rise to producers in 2001, up on average over the year 16.6% on 2000 prices, with prices peaking in May/June. Flemin stressed however that his estimates for prices were conservative and the average price for the year could be up as much as 27% on 2000. .
Whole Hog Comment: The Danes are smiling - as Whole Hog has observed in previous issues. They deserve their success, and the credit for holding their nerve and managing their industry well during the lean years of 1998 and 1999. There are however, dark clouds on the horizon , not least for the more combative stance on environmental issues from their own government . .