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Polybius on Fortune and Historical Causation


            Ancient civilizations have fascinated the world for century due to their mysterious and unknown past. Archaeological sites, artwork, architecture, and literature have all aided in the pursuit of exploring the ancient world. While literature may not be in it's complete format today, it is the most direct and accurate method of research. Scholars have continually relied on the writings of the era to ascertain what conditions existed, how culture and society developed, and what events happened that shaped the modern world. One such writer academics rely on is the Greek historian Polybius.
             Polybius was a Greek man, living in Rome at the height of its Republic power. While he went to Rome as a prisoner, he left as a man of respect and renown having befriended many powerful Romans, including the famous general, Scipio. He is most famous for his Histories, which chronicles the rise of the Roman Republic to its Empire days. His books cover many wars and conquests, most importantly the three Punic wars. Polybius' goal in his writings was to prove the theory of historical causation, which is still a tenet of the study of history today.
             The theory of historical causation asserts that, in the most basic terms, every occurrence has a cause and effect. Polybius adds on the idea that every occurrence has a cause, a beginning, and a pretext, each of these being separate and different from the other (Polybius, Book III.6). He defines "beginning " as "the first attempt to execute and put into action plans which have already been decided. " "Cause, " Polybius writes, is "those events which influence in advance our purposes and decisions, that is to say our conception of things, our state of mind, our calculations about them and the whole process of reasoning whereby we arrive at decisions and undertakings. "Pretext " then becomes the false excuse or surface reasoning used to commit the desired actions. A pretext may be given if an action would benefit a single powerful person and not the society as a whole.


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