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China's Economic Rise and Fall

            The continuous rise of China has undoubtedly been one of the great dramas in the beginning of the twenty- first century. The extraordinary economic growth in China and their active diplomacy have already transformed East Asia. What we have yet to see is if China's continued rise will increase their power and influence in the decades to come. China's presence on the world stage has drastically increased and has left many researches perplexed about the consequences of its rise. There exists a plethora of studies, debating whether China's current path is one that is headed to the top, or whether China is a the precipice of its development with looming declines in the near future, plagued by weak institutional reforms. There are many features that characterize Chinas future direction, this paper will analyze those features and predictions that are more likely to be correct and those predictions that are more likely to be wrong. .
             Among the predications that are more likely to be wrong, is author Peter Zeiban's predication. He predicts in his book "The Accidental Super Power" that China will fall. As he sees it there are a "raft of concerns" and "collectively they are more than enough to return China to the fractured, self-containing mess that it has been for most of its history" (p. 290). In his assumption he faults the Chinese financial system as the biggest reason why China will fall. As Zeiban sees it, Chinas fall will be from an "entire Chinese system that is subprime, in every economic sector" (p. 309). What he fails to highlight is the enormous economy that supports this financial system. China has been able to become the second largest economy in the world by adhering to the rules of global trade set up by the British in the 19th Century and the US in the 20th. Despite being a Communist state, China has increasingly been the champion of global free market capitalism, with its economy growing while Western ones stagnate.

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