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Forecasting


             Sales force composite 1. Involves the people (sales personnel) 1. Estimators (sales personnel) have a.
             who will be held responsible for the vested interest and therefore may be.
             Results biased.
             2. Is fairly accurate 2. Elaborate schemes sometimes necessary.
             3. Aids in controlling and directing the to counteract bias.
             sales effort 3. If estimates are biased, process to.
             4. Forecast is available for individual correct the data can be expensive.
             sales territories .
             Jury of executive 1. Easily done, very quick 1. Produces aggregate forecasts.
             opinion 2. Does not require elaborate statistics 2. Expensive.
             3. Utilizes "collective wisdom1' of the 3. Disperses responsibility for the forecast.
             top people 4. Group dynamics operate.
             4. Useful for new or innovative products .
             Delphi technique 1. Minimizes effects of group dynamics 1. Can be expensive and time-consuming.
             2. Can utilize statistical information .
             Market test 1. Provides ultimate test of consumers' 1. Lets competitors know what firm is doing.
             reactions to the product 2. Invites competitive reaction.
             2. Allows the assessment of the 3. Expensive and time-consuming to set up.
             effectiveness of the total marketing 4. Often takes a long time to accurately.
             Program assess level of initial and repeat demand.
             3. Useful for new and innovative products .
             Time series analysis 1. Utilizes historical data 1. Not useful for new or innovative products.
             2. Objective, inexpensive 2. Factors for trend, cyclical, seasonal, or.
             product life-cycle phase must be.
             accurately assessed and included.
             3. Technical skill and good judgment.
             required.
             4. Final forecast difficult to break down into.
             individual territory estimates.
             5. Ignores planned marketing effort.
             Statistical demand 1. Great intuitive appeal 1. Factors affecting sales must remain.
             analysis 2. Requires quantification of assumptions constant and be accurately identified.


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