Is Ray Kurzweil¡¯s prediction of future reliable

After I finished reading The Age of Spritual Machines, by Ray Kurzweil, I couldn¡¯t stop thinking if Kurzweil¡¯s prediction of the future is true, what the hell am I doing right now, studying, working, and trying to succeed in this life. If we are all to live in a world of virtual reality, without the need of our physical body, why do I bother working out and exercising? If a computer program can be a better lover and lifelong partner than a real human being, then what¡¯s the point of marrying someone? What is the point of having a family? There were so many questions, that it was simply mind-boggling. I had to calm myself down, and first see if his predictions really are reliable, because if it isn¡¯t, then there¡¯s really no point in worrying about it. But, if it is reliable, well then, I will think about that then. So is he reliable? Let¡¯s examine.

Ray Kurzweil is a scientist most famous for writing the The Age of Artificial Intelligence in the late 80¡¯s. He predicted many things back then, and surprisingly many of them came true, according to him. I haven¡¯t actually read the book, so I can¡¯t be sure that he¡¯s

Kurzweil¡¯s predictions in his prior book The Age of Artificial Intelligence was written in the late 80¡¯s to predict the future in the late 90¡¯s. He predicted what will happen in a 10 years. He was quite accurate in that prediction. In his newer book written in the late 90¡¯s ,The Age of Spritual Machines, he makes predictions for year 2009. That¡¯s another prediction for something that will happen in 10 years. He has a proven track record on that, and it¡¯s not surprising that he¡¯s on target yet again. We are only 5 years away from 2009, and his predictions have already come true or are right on target to be. His predictions for 2019, which is a 20 year prediction, something he does NOT have a track record of, also do not seem too far-fetched. They are believable. But his predictions for year 2029 and beyond, seem to require a little more imagination and faith. Who knows if the world will be like Kurzweil describes it 25 years from now, but if it is, we better be ready for it. For one, I¡¯m going to try to go to law school, because it sure seems like that¡¯s a field which will be very important in the future.

He also says that all-enveloping tactile environment will be widely available and fully convincing. This means that you can have virtual reality sex. He says that people actually prefer to have sex in the virtual reality world than in real life because of it¡¯s ability to enhance both experience and safety. People will be beginning to have relationships with automated personalities as companions, teachers and caretakers and lovers. That means by the time I¡¯m in my mid forties, I¡¯ll be having sex with a virtual partner. Now would that be considered cheating or what (assuming that I will be married and have a wife then)? This prediction, that this virtual reality world will exist, is one of the biggest predictions Kurzweil makes, in my opinion, and I think this is something that we will have to wait and see. His predictions in subsequent years rely heavily on this prediction. Let¡¯s move on to year 2029.

Kurzweil says that generally disabilities such as blindness, deadness, and paraplegia will not be noticeable and are not regarded as significant. There are already significant improvements made in this area of disabilities, and I think it¡¯s reasonable to think that in 20 years, lot of them will be cured or helped by technology that allow them to function normally.

He predicted that many documents never exist on paper because they incorporate information in the form of audio and video pieces. Well, I guess that is true, but I also don¡¯t think that it is a significant prediction. I believe such files existed in the late 80¡¯s also; a file that incorporated video and audio.

He also predicted that a worldwide information network linking almost all organizations and tens of millions of individuals will emerge. He was dead-on right on this one. In 1995 the internet was privatized and the World wide web was born, and the rest is history. Again, if you were someone working in the NSF, or were part of ARPANET, then you could easily have made this prediction. But again, we have to give him some props were getting this right.

He predicted that reliable person identification, using pattern recognition techniques applied to visual and speech patters, will replace locks and keys. From the looks of it, that does seem to be happening, but overwhelming number of organizations and people still use locks and keys. I personally have not seen a lock or key using visual or speech recognizing technologies in real life; I¡¯ve only seen them in the movies.

He predicts that by year 2009, we will be carrying at least dozen computers in our body. It¡¯s year 2003, and we don¡¯t carry around doze

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