This phase is considered to be a demographic trap because the population can easily grow too quickly for the country to support. Developmental problems can occur within the country due to the rapid growth rate of the population. There is an upward trend in the total population during the second phase of the demographic transition. .
Phase III is indicated by a growing population. There is a drop in birth rates and the death rates start to level out. Families are becoming smaller due to the increased cost in raising children and contraception is more widely available. The population begins to reach its peak. ("Demographic transition," 2014) Fresh healthy food, clean water, and sanitation are prevalent which reduces diseases and lowers the death rates. Towards the end of this phase the birth rates start to become similar to the death rates.
Phase IV of the demographic transition has a stable population. There has been a new equilibrium between the birth and death rates. The lowered death rates are due to modern medicine that is available. There are low birth rates as well during this phase. ("Demographic transition," 2014) As the population ages the death rates will be slightly higher. .
Effects of Birth and Death Rates In Epidemiologic and Fertility Phases.
Demographers have found that the crude death and birth rates decline during the epidemiologic and fertility phases of demographic transitions due to the increase of modern medicine, life expectancy, cleaner living conditions, and the prevalence of family planning/contraceptive. (McKeown, 2009) A.R. Omran is credited with the theory of the epidemiologic transition due to an article he wrote in 1971. (McKeown, 2009) Omran believed that the decline in mortality had a direct effect on birth rates. With more people living longer the decrease in infant and child death the less people of childbearing age at one time. Life expectancy became longer which helped reduce the size of families along with the availability of contraceptives.