Hardy's novels detail his beliefs in determinism and the struggles of his characters that lack free will. Even the most cursory reading of The Mayor of Casterbridge reveals a structural pattern that relies heavily on coincidence. Indeed, the story would hardly progress were it not for the chance occurrences that push Henchard closer and closer to failure. For example, the reappearance of one long-lost character would test our willingness to believe, but here we witness the returns of Susan, the furmity-woman, and Newson, each of whom brings a dark secret that contributes to Henchard's doom. Hardy's reliance on coincidence relates directly to his philosophy of the world. As a determinist, Hardy believed that human life was.
shaped not by free will but by such powerful, uncontrollable forces as heredity and God. The Mayor of Casterbridge, like most of Hardy's work, is in fact more the platform for chance, which according to Roget's Thesaurus is, Absence of purpose in the succession of events. Henchard's character issued an abundance of opportunities to change his fate and yet, his emotions rule the actions which cause a spiraling downfall of his life. If it were predetermined that Henchard was to sell his wife and live the next twenty years of his life bettering himself, why then would he be given a chance to go after his wife? Ashamed and broken from what he has done, he makes the choice to seek out Susan as does he make the choice to stop drinking. .
Albert J. Guerard states, Hardy recognized-as Shakespeare did three centuries before him- that the guilty not merely flagellate themselves but also thrust themselves in the way of bad luck; create what appear to be unlucky accidents. In order to be unlucky there would have to be luck present, therefore disputing the evidence of fatalism.
According to Greek critics, the catastrophe is the result of those external forces which he called "Fate," and which we might call "determining psycho-social contexts.