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Global Warming


The impact on atmospheric water vapor is a prime example. As the earth's surface heats (particularly ocean surfaces), the 1990 IPCC models predicted higher concentrations of atmospheric water vapor due to surface water evaporation. Because water vapor is also a natural greenhouse gas (because it has the effect of deflecting infrared heat back to the earth's surface), higher concentrations of atmospheric water vapor have a compounding effect on rising surface temperatures. The IPCC's models predicted several such "positive feedbacks- from increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations, resulting in a predicted increase in global surface temperatures under the "business as usual- scenario of between 1 and 3.5 degrees C (1.8 to 6.3 degrees F) by 2065.
             The IPCC issued its second report in 1995 and its third, and most recent report, in 2000. Both reports concluded that human activity was continuing to increase atmospheric CO2 concentrations and that global surface temperatures were escalating. Indeed, the 2000 IPCC report concluded that 1998 was the hottest year in recorded history. There was one significant change in the IPCC's 2000 climate predictions: it seems that an unwitting consequence of the world's largely successful efforts to reduce industrial smog has been to increase global surface temperatures (at least according to the IPCC climate models). Industrial smog, primarily sulfur dioxide, is actually a "negative feedback- - its aerosol particles reflect incoming sunlight. By reducing smog levels from previous estimates, the IPCC's 2000 report increased global warming projections under its "business as usual- scenario for the next 50 years to between 1.4 and 5.8 degrees C (2.5 to 10.4 degrees F). .
             Not surprisingly, the IPCC's 1990 report and predictions set off a fierce debate within the scientific community, many of whom felt that political issues had caused the IPCC to reach conclusions that were not adequately supported by credible scientific data.


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